As America’s preeminence in world politics has diminished, it is tempting to seek regime change in order to advance the country’s interests. But the record shows that these efforts often fail in their basic goals and can have profound blowback for American security.
Regime change policies imply covert intervention by one nation that is aimed at overthrowing another’s government and replacing it with a more friendly, often democratic regime. Examples include supporting a military coup, providing covert support to a political party or movement and, in the most extreme cases, launching a full-scale invasion. The goal is to create a government that will serve the policymaker’s political and economic interests. This goal is often based on the assumption that the existing regime is corrupt and doing harm to its citizens. It is also common to argue that the regime should be replaced with a democracy in order to spread liberal values and promote the economy.
Our research suggests that both macro- and micro-arguments can lead to regime change. In particular, macro-processes — including a country’s rate of economic development and the evolution of informal norms and values — can determine a nation’s propensity toward a specific kind of regime. In addition, a key macro-process that might trigger a change is the presence of a group akin to professional revolutionaries. This group has the capacity to maximize their effort and is able to exploit opportunities that arise during the disruption of a regime.